Climate Change Stress Index
Overview
This layer is a composite index of climate stress based on the degree of change between the recent history (1950-1999) and projected future (2050-2099) of temperature, precipitation, vegetation production, and habitat type shifts. Climate stress is estimated across a hexagonal grid with each cell being nearly 2,500 km2 in area.
Data Layer Description
Source
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Wildlife Habitat Policy Research Program
What this data layer represents
This layer predicts hot spots of climate stress in the coterminous United States.
Location
National (lower 48)
Description
This layer is a composite index of climate stress based on the degree of change between the recent history (1950-1999) and projected future (2050-2099) of temperature, precipitation, vegetation production, and habitat type shifts. Climate stress is estimated across a hexagonal grid with each cell being nearly 2,500 km2 in area.
Historical climate data and future climate scenario analysis data were from the VINCERA (Vulnerability and Impacts of North American Forests to Climate: Ecosystem Responses and Adaptation) project (http://www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/research/vincera/). The historical climate data were interpolated from original climate station records from Meteorological Service of Canada and US Weather Service and summarized for 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude grids across the U.S. The future climate data were based on the CGCM2 climate model (a product of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), a relatively high carbon dioxide emission rate (the A2 scenario as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and an assumed low plant response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The most sensitive terrestrial areas in the coterminous U.S. to climate change are associated with transitions between major biomes and in the areas of high topographic relief . The least sensitive geographic areas on this relative scale were in the southern Great Plains, the mid-Atlantic region, and scattered areas in the Gulf Coast and mountain West. The states with the greatest proportional area in relatively high climate stress include Missouri and Arkansas and the least stress include the states of Texas and Oklahoma.
How to get the data layer
Data is not yet publicly available. Contact Linda Joyce at 970-498-2560 or Curtis Flather at 970-295-5950 for more information about this data layer.
How you might make use of this data layer
The terrestrial climate stress index can be used to identify areas of relatively high or low stress across the coterminous U.S. in a consistent and repeatable manner. Such information could provide managers with information on potential habitat impacts within regions and a state, including the uncertainty associated with these identified impacts, the underlying causes of that uncertainty (climate shifts, changes in habitat area, or changes in habitat quality) and the geographic range of the greatest and least stress areas. A comparison of climate stress against areas of high migration resistance (caused by intensive human land uses) or high proportions of at-risk species can be used to prioritize areas in need of conservation action to conserve biodiversity in the face of climate change.
How to get more information
Data is not yet publicly available. Contact Linda Joyce at 970-498-2560 or Curtis Flather at 970-295-5950 for more information about this data layer.
